There is a prevalent risk of disenchantment when a movement makes an alliance with a neighboring belligerent county. In most cases the alliance’s own objective would eventually surpasses the objectives of the sponsored organization. This was the case when Mohammed Said Bare of Somalia supported the Western Somali Liberation Movement against Ethiopia. The Somalian strong man end up using the movement as his own Trojan horse for Ethiopia invasion in 1977. The long term consequence of such alliance is destruction of Somalia as state with help of his once allies Soviet Union and Cuba who changed side and supported his traditional enemy Ethiopia. Does same scenario would repeat to that of Eritrea by her continuous supporting organizing rebellion against Ethiopia as an outcome of the coming confrontation?
Prof. Muse has thought in the University of Asmara ( Sociology of Liberation, Change & Education 2005,06,07), established an orgnaization to train Eritrean war Handicaps and Athletes, last but not least thought and supported different Ethiopian oppsotion movments in Eritrea. He will be analyzing in 12 series of Articles the role of Liberation movements in the state formation and nation building in the Horn of Africa. He bases his analysis on the Eritrea as a case study elaborating what he calls ”the 12 Parameters of Liberation.” In this article he will be making a synopsis of the 1st parameter :- I. Alliance
Could Eritrea be a viable allay for Ethiopian Liberation ?
Concepts
Armed National Liberation Movement as a social concept has not been intelligible to social science its scope and problematic marred in complexity and mitigating criticism due to its distant to our daily apprehension . Among the western academia the role of National Armed Liberation Movement NALM as vehicle to bring a lasting social change has been considered as an Epiphenomenon . In peripheral societies NALM has has been a principal agent for national revendication and state formation. This type of insurgency emerged as a social prodigy in the struggle for liberation in the colonized societies in the middle of 20th century. In opposition to the Revolutionary upheaval of 18 & 19 centuries in the West, NALM has been a dominant formation in the peripheral societies. In the west the national transformation was preceded with a classical revolutionary uprisings in the US, France, UK and Russia. In the colonized and occupied territories the movement grew in ampler after the difficulty they faced to applying a non- violent methodology as practiced by Mahatma Gandhi and Dr. King. For those societies where such a pacific movement could not take root due to the brutality of the ruling colonial powers, NALM rest the only way out against militaristic junta who took over the departing colonial power in post liberation period .
NALM a “Freedom Fighter or A terrorist?”
Due to the lacunae to scientific interpretation any NALM could easily be labeled as Terrorist movement, though “one man’s terrorist seems another’s liberator.” Any armed movement fighting to liberate his country from tyranny and injustice would easily be named as a terrorist by the tyrannic regime and its international supporters. Furthermore, the members of any Armed National Liberation Movement in their outset are considered and painted as bandits outlaws and their leaders are labelled terrorists and if caught are executed or thrown in jail. The best living examples would be Mandela, Begin, Arafat, etc…
The name of NALM has been confused and also painted as truly inhuman organisation with intention to use the state apparatus for their own terrorist ends. In the contrary a true NALM use arm struggle as the last resort when all the civic doors are closed. The notorious terrorist leaders have international arrest mandate put against them. Some of the most out spoken are :- Osama bin Laden the head of Al Quida, the Afghan Taliban deposed leader Mullah Omar, and the somlian Alshabab leader Sheikh Moktar Ali Zubeyr “Godane” , the Peruvian shining path leaders Artemio & Palomino accused of narcoterrorism . And those caught Abimael Guzmán and Elena Yparraguirre serving life imprisonment in Peru, Kurdistan PKK leaderAbdullah Öcalan caught in Kenya etc…, each country could dress its own list.
NALM As a Phenomena
The objective of this synopsis is to simplify the phenomena of Liberation Struggle in the coming 12 series of short articles to grasp the different parameters that an Armed National Liberation Movement might full fill to be labeled as a full flagged social liberation movement. This is without being labeled as a proxy, warlord, terrorist etc…
In this primary extrapolation we will be making a synopsis of the 1st parameter what we call a belligerent alliance planning a tacit covenant between the Movement and the government sponsoring it in general it is not written but oral. Since any NALM to assure the liberation of its country either from colonialism or a tyranny in power . They need an external alliance in order to have a support in logistic and material assistance to resist the over whelming military imbalance in the hands of the regime or the power they are fighting to change. Other wise they will be engage in local narco-trafficking, hostage taking or Piracy like that of Al Shabab of Somalia to finance their costly militaristic engagement. This dérapage ends up playing against their favor like that of the Tamil Tigers narco-business which is their main cause in their recent debacle. They were transformed to drag dealers than liberators which weaken their militaristic outlook and geo-strategy.
Starting early 50’s up unto mid 80’s the NALM were in benefice of the existing double polarity of East and West to their advantage. Today with a mono capital globalized world the geostrategic alliance the international situation has completely altered against the interest of NALM. The only and the last solution for any NALM to get a support would be from a belligerent non conformist country if any left. Such a choice is the most difficult and the last chance to take considering all the risk such engagement would bring to the survival and the success of such insurgency. This could not be primordial if the movement is a locally grown, having a big internal support and functioning independently without any external assistance. .
Africa & the Role of NALM
In Africa due to the in human brutality endured by the colonized societies, they were forced to take armed struggle as a final solution to eradicate this in human colonial judge imposed upon them. This methodology is also applied even in the countries where a classical form of revolutionary struggle could not take root in order to topple a local dictatorial regime in post liberated countries like Vietnam, Uganda, Rwanda, Nicaragua, Cuba, Congo etc…
The 17 African French colonies were given a colonial pact as model for independence except that of Algeria who took NALM as a final solution.
In the Southern part of the African continent the British colonial countries like Southern Africa, Zimbabwe, and Namibia were taken over by a local European group to establish apartheid regimes in post colonial era. The indigenous population chose NALM as an obligatory passage to liberate their country.
Some of the post colonial countries are still governed by non democratic de facto banana republics. While very few are coming out post colonial dictatorial regime through the ballet boxes :- Ghana, Benin, Liberia, Mozambique, Senegal have set the example. While the others are waiting to be liberated using mostly the non violent methods. Some has become in the post liberate period dominated by a single party political system with any kind of oppositions parties tolerated :- China, Libya, Iran, Vietnam, North Korea, Eritrea, etc…
Jihad vis NALM
In certain ex Ottoman provinces the historical kingship established by the evacuating mandate of United Kingdom the power were taken over by non-commissioned free officers who have established a sort of stratocracy rules :-Egypt, Libya, Syria. Iraq)
The 19 Arabic countries either governed by a traditional system of Kingship or with a one dominant party leading the country for over 3 decades. The majority are menaced by radical violent Islamic movements claiming as a vector of social change. This is leading to unprecedented external international expansion as in the case of Al Quida declaring a holy Jihad against what they call the “Western Christan Crusaders.” The latter went too far from its roots in Arabian Peninsula becoming a world threat since 9/11 horrible act in the US. Such radicalism has became as new form of international extremism mixed with fundamentalist Islamic ideology. Such claim and symbolism become more intensified when it reached the non-Arabic countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Indonesia, Somalia. In these countries the NALM is replaced with religious restrict and lost its nationalist sense. In these regions any NALM seems a communist movement and rejected automatically in post cold war period.
Mano Dura vis NALM
Latin American countries were taken over by mano dura (strong hand) of a military dictatorship in the post colonial period. Some twentieth-century military dictatorships follow the pattern of nineteenth-century caudillo leaders who often use of personal charisma than brute military force. But in latter days Latinos were taken over by the worst of military junta :- Chile, Argentina Peru, Nicaragua etc… The subcontinent was severely damaged by a singularly brutal military regimes and by the emergence of drug cartels. This was the back ground where most formidable NALMs took their root.
The Somoza dynasty in Nicaragua is the longest lasting of the local dictatorships starting 1936 and is succeeded by two of his sons before the years of corrupt family rule are finally ended in 1979 by NALM led by Ortega brothers. In Paraguay, where the commander of the armed forces, Alfredo Stroessner, abdicted power in 1954. In this same year, a military junta is installed in Guatemala against the NALM Farabundo Martí National Liberation Movement.
The binging of the end of the cold war the 1989 US’s decisive intervention in Panama to seize the local dictator Manuel Noriega in his suspected involvement with the unquenchable flow of illegal drugs from Latin America into the USA set the unprecedented democratic wind of change in Latin America. US was obliged to stop its own supported to regimes due to the expansion of uncontrollable use of cocaine in its own territory. The increase use of cocaine and more recently crack, both derived from the coca plant grown in several Latin American countries (particularly Bolivia and Colombia) start having unprecedented damage to the young Americans. These uncontrolled substances, bringing huge profits to the drugs cartels and much laundering of illegal funds, is a profoundly corrupting influence in central America in the regimes once supported by the USA. They start influencing state power by murdering high officials like in Mexico in post cold war periods. Since all the Latin America republics, start discarding their military regimes, with a painful return to democracy seeking retribution like in Chile by the ‘disappeared’ families against the military dictators put the precedent by a women who lost her family coming in power. But still the NALM in certain latin Aamerican countries are controlled by narco traficants in Colombia the Farc and the Shining Path in Peru. The best precedent for a true NALM is set by the example of Subcomandante Marcos in Chiapas in Mexico fighting for democracy and injustice to this day.
Horn of Africa Proxy Vis NALM
Eritrea choice by default or necessity ?
The countries of Horn of Africa in the post Cold War period have been victim of drastic in balance of power. Countries like Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and, Congo are severely dis-equilibrated since the fall of the iron curtain. These countries have seen the birth place of many of the multiple Ethnical movements. They have taken the inhabitants of these countries in hostage and some of the worst mass execution and displacement of the population have taken place the worst example would be Rwanda where almost a 800’000 inocent were annihilated in 100 days. Somalia is experiencing the worst of all the regional countries. The country has been divided into three regional states and has become a fertile ground for Islamic Extremism, foreign intervention and continuous war and conflict.
In short of strategic balancing power Eritrea took the lead of regional role. Eritrea weak nation about 5 million inhabitants, just under two decades of independence, and one of the least poorest countries in the world took the vacuum as a balancing power by default. This is done in her fight for her survival in the region under constant turmoil created by hers unnecessary fear of eventual reintegration back to 80 million strong enemy Ethiopia. This due to the lacuna in the regional strategic power which Ethiopia is dominat. In this struggle Eritrea became a principal producer of Proxy warriors in the region and creating unexpected border conflict with her neighbors:- Yemen, Ethiopia and Djibouti. Eritrea start a taking as a mechanism of defense in search of regional identity after its fall out with Ethiopia in 1998. The leaders freeze their own country paralyzing Eritrea without parliament, independent press, no political parties, no freedom of believes and no election at the horizon. They start recruiting every body to the army due to the paranoia of eventual invasion by phantom Ethiopia and organizing proxies from all over the region especially from Ethiopia. In response the Ethiopian regime start organizing from the Eritrean exiles proxies to fight Eritrea.
This multiple proxies formed in Eritrea and Ethiopia perpetuate conflict in the region. Both countries after over 40 years of war and conflict still harbor a good number of ” Liberation Movements”. This in return has destabilized the region to more chaos and anarchy. Considering their economical situation, arming, training and rationing a proxy movement is not cost effective for a country like Eritrea and Ethiopia with millions of starving population . Both regimes hardly survive through international aids and support. These proxies are prepared in addition to the existing over 1 million armed people in both countries. This militarization of the society perpetuates conflict and recruitment of underage kids to their respective war machine diminishes the independent working force in each house hold. Some spent most of their life working for the government with out being paid under the mano military.
We have concentrated to understand the complicated social armed movements existing between Ethiopia and Eritrea as a case study and their repercussion in the Greater Horn of Africa:- Somalia, Djibouti, Kenya Rwanda, Burundi, Sudan.
Recently for many Ethiopians, Eritrea has become the only choice by predilection for liberating their country by engaging in a resistance movement symbolizing from the Somalian resistance to occupation as a model.
Is it genuine to ask then, Could Eritrea be a viable choice to help in liberating Ethiopia its principal enemy form the reign of a Dictator? Or other countries in the region while she is under the reign of dictator?
You can say that the answer in in the the question itself. There is a prevalent risk of disenchantment when a movement makes an alliance with a neighboring belligerent county. In most cases the alliance’s own objective would eventually surpasses the objectives of the sponsored organization. This was the case when Mohammed Said Bare of Somalia supported the Western Somali Liberation Movement of Ogaden against Ethiopia. The Somalian strong man end up using the movement as his own Trojan horse for Ethiopian invasion in 1977. The long term consequence of such alliance is the destruction of Somalia as a state with help of his once allies Soviet Union and Cuba who changed side and supported his traditional enemy Ethiopia. Does same scenario would repeat to that of Eritrea by her continuous supporting organizing rebellion against Ethiopia as an outcome of the coming confrontation?
It also seems very simple for a movement or a group to go to the belligerent neighbor to ask for help or in search of a safe heaven or a corridor preferring the expediency would take this as a temporary solution till one finds a definitive one. Many moved to Eritrea from the region ( Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti,Yemen) knowing the best all the choice for any liberation struggle must be indigenous or home grown struggle. In most cases the provisional choice ends up being definitive in Social movements, since a human life span is to short to see a victory waiting for another three decades like that of the Eritrean struggle. At first sight the choice looks viable and the door seems wide open. This logic could be benign and could be applied when we are short of any logical alternative and short of any given historical experience. This could simply be a marriage of convenience when we base our analysis only with a simplest logic such as ” enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Today the same question should be addressed to Eritrea supporting the different anti Ethiopian Armed Liberation Movement in its soil, seeing the long lasting animosity of the two countries. Would Eritrea not end up manipulating them as proxy of its own seeing her animosity and long standing war and conflict with Ethiopia? . This has been the main question that everybody is asking us since we published a video in YouTube in 2006? In the beginning it seems tempting especially after seeing the 1st version of the video.
Could Shabia or Woyane save Ethiopia from past or future Balkanization?
Many would say it is too early to guess but one thing is sure that both are working against the Ethiopian national interest and only history will be the Judge. Seeing the urgency it would be very hard to give a futuristic response rather we need to learn from the recent history of Somalia which render it easy to predict the coming scenario. Many would conclude also that such a reality will be true if Eritrea manipulates the movements and intervene in the internal affair of the organizations in her soil. The worst case scenarios would be these movements are organized and prepared by Eritrea for Eritrea’s own political ends in the same way as Mohamed Side Bare of Somalia did to his in country 1970′s. Others will call the recent history of 1991 when Eritreans made alliance to topple the dictatorial regime of Ethiopia. The Eritreans claim that they did not accelerate the long waited balkanization of Ethiopia in the footsteps of Yugoslavia. They did not even push Ethiopia to anarchy and turmoil like Somalia, they claim in posteriori . The Eritre rather prefer to assist their comrade in Arm Woayne, or today’s Frère Enemy in power in Addis Ababa, to take over the political arena in Ethiopia. Even many goes far to say that the Eritreans are those who forced the Tigrians to take over Ethiopia rather than leaving the country in anarchy and chaos like Somalia. In 1991 the Woyane movement seemingly were going only for its regional independence rather than taking the lion share by controlling Ethiopia. Many even farther claim that the Woyane’ were the proxy, organized and prepared by the Eritreans, who betrayed them in 1998. This would be the main cause of the interminable conflict between both groups to this day. The conflict between the two movement knew its roots in the time of the struggle. It is in 1998 that Woyane refused to be the puppet of Eritrea after seven years of manipulation in the name of alliance starting 1991. This version is contested today by the regime in Ethiopia which was once supported and armed by the Eritreans. Eritreans sell this famous argument for the different organizations they are harboring. And they claim being the savior of Ethiopia from debacle like Somalia, by leaving the country willingly to the Tigrians. Today each claimed as the savior of the other camp. The Ethiopian Woyane boast as founder and protector of Eritrean Independence and a gift they endowed them after their long struggle against the consecutive Ethiopian regimes. After 1998 fall out and mutual betrayal the Eritrean Shabia leaders claim that a “unified and friendly strong Ethiopia” without Woyane in power is a viable option in the region. The Woayne leaders in Ethiopia claim also “a stable non-belligerent” ethnically organized Eritrea without Shabia is a viable option. It seems both wanted to change a regime in each other’s capital. Their bilious political position in both capitals will not make it a viable ground for any NALM fighting to change any of the regimes in both countries since they will end up being exploited as a Trojan horse or as we commonly called a Proxy. Sociologically we can affirm that any proxy prepared to execute certain mission could end up revolting against its maker once in power due to the conflict of interest that will emerge due to the retribution of the past wounds. the living example would be Shabia or Eritrea and Woyane of Ethiopia. The politician predict if Shabia pushes further like Somalia, there is a great risk that Eritrea to be re integrated to the ancient territories of Abyssinia with a special status in the outcome of the final confrontation. This will be done in the model of Sana and Eden in Yemen. This in return will stabilize the region from piracy and terrorism in neighboring Somalia. And this further halts Al-Qaida’s expansion to the already fragile Great lake Region via Uganda. And many African countries who once supported the UN sanction against Eritrea are favorable to this the scenario to stop the future destabilization of their own county’s artificial and porous frontiers inherited from the African Scramble.
Is Eritrea supporting ” Home Grown ” Movements or Just Proxies?
Does a belligerent and bilious neighboring country truly help a genuine movement to grow inside its own undefined porous recently liberated territory? In both countries (Eritrea & Ethiopia ) sponsored organization will end up being deployed in a conflict zone as we have seen it in Eritrea the last ten years. This would be an outright risk that the different sponsored movements would join the enemy ground as a retribution when ever un healed wounds of the past resurge? This was the case recently when the proxy fighters endangered the sponsor by joining the enemy risking the independence of Eritrea itself ? This scenarios is a daily phenomena today that Eritrean trained EPPF (Ethiopian People’s Patriotic Front) members are deserting to the regime in Addis and exposing the situation in Eritrea. Many fighters who joined the enemy camp are denouncing the remaining comrades or those in the field as agents of Eritrea. It has become a double sided sward for both Ethiopian and Eritrean genuine Liberation Struggle. But in Eritrea the defectors are only the soldiers of the Ethiopian regime not the members of any Eritrean Liberation Proxies prepared by Addis regime.
The Ethiopians are following the Somalian example of the Islamic court by lulling many to defect to their side. The notorious example would be Sharif Sheikh Ahmed
once the alley of Eritrea now the president of Somalia and the allay of the west and Ethiopia and the principal enemy of Eritrea. This is the result of small nations trying take fill the vacuum of great power for their own internal consumption. This is back firing on Eritrea itself like that Cuba in 60’s trying to defuse her ideology when menaced by the USA.
It seems Eritrea supports only ethnically based movements not of a true NALM. This is done to protect its own survival. The flagrant contradiction is when Woyane criticized Eritrea dividing Ethiopian movements in tribal basis, forgetting her own preparation of proxies in Tribal basis too. And most of all the Ethiopia herself is wholly divided in an Ethnical Federation by Woayne itself. In the last decade of our experience with Eritrea all the organizations functioning in the country are tribal or Ethnically based organization. If we take EPPF is a mere proxy of Eritrean image saving in the name of multinational movement. The later even is considered being an Amhara organization by the Eritrean themselves to calm the legitimate fear of the other ethnically based movements in he soil. The EPPF’s fragility in Eritrea is its spouse nationalist aspirations symbolically. The Eritreans just for face saving and propaganda basis play as a multi ethnic movement knowing even at a proxy level Eritrea will not tolerate any Ethiopian Nationalist movement. This in turn will eventually claim Eritrea itself by not respecting the its proxy engagement at the probable demise Woyane regime in Addis Ababa. Since the new nationalist movement will not respect not only the Woyane institution in Ethiopia but also the convection of Eritrean independence itself. Thus Eritrea is not surely working at the demise of the Ethiopian regime rather they are trying to intimidate them to fall under their hegemony like that of 1991-1998 lost golden period of relation with Woyane regime in Addis Ababa.
In Eritrea today any home grown movement is welcome but highly controlled and weakened and divided and held at arm’s length. It will be pushed to make a constant alliance with other proxies to weaken its leaders grip on its power. These movements after their arrival in Eritrea will experience their vanguard weakened by accepting patched alliances with one or other groups as experienced in the last 10 years. The short lived internationally known alliance was Alliance for Freedom and Democracy (AFD).
The best example an earlier tentative was the creation of EPPF as an alliance of the Amharas with Benishangul
and Gambela Ethnic groups where a reshuffling of leadership in favor of Eritrea is assured at the expense of the original proxies themselves in 2001. Some of the orginal leaders were imprisoned and left due to the issue of the power conflict that immerged. Today the founders of EPPF’s tribal alliance are all in Exile (Ethiopian Air force Col. Tadesse
Muluneh the 1st chairman is in Asmara not allowed to leave yet, Paul Tewat of Gambella exiled to Kenya, Jumma Rufale of Benishuengol exiled to Sudan, who recently handed over to Ethiopian regime and sentenced to life. EPPF in 2005 as a proxy alliance was atomized to 5 tribal tribal movements of Benishangul , Gambela , Tigrean, Southern and northern Armacheho-Welkiet proxies due to undo Eritrean intervention. Since the the remaining proxy tries to recruit its members out of the Northern Armacho Welkaiet area, the newly Tegrian integrated region of the Gonder province . And of most of its ledears have given their hands to the Ethiopian regime or are in Exile. In its tumultuous existence EPPF never succeeded to integrate even the rest of the Northern Amharas. EPPF does 
not even full fill the criteria of being proxy . It became a nominal association in limbo giving a headache organizationally for the Eritrean to have a symbolic nominal functioning proxy. Since it is organized once in Ethnical basis the next day regional, this craeted the external confusion of identity.
Eritrea and Ethiopia have been helping and organizing different armed movements against each other to use them as a Trojan horse for their unfinished war since 1998. Both regimes manipulate these movements as a pretext whenever they make an incursion or disguised operations in each other’s territory. Today their scope of action has stretched all over the Horn of Africa. Their covert war continues either by organizing proxies to fight each other’s battle in any of the neighboring countries like Sudan, Kenya most importantly Somalia. The new front has just been opened in Kampala, Uganda. Some Ethiopian movements like OLF, ONLF, today found in Eritrea existed long before the creation of Eritrea as a state and have a ground and are home grown. These movements moved to Eritrea due to the inability to function freely in any of the neighboring countries due to a Ethnical contingency with Ethiopia. If you take Afars in their triangle are divided between Eritrea, Ethiopia and Djibouti. The Afars like the Somalis has been the Kurdistan of the Horn of Africa. The three respective governments manipulate Afars as a proxy for their everlasting wars. Very often the manipulated leaders are seen changing capitals. And each country has its own proxy Afar liberation Movement, exempting those working in their own ground.
Ethiopia - Eritrea : ARDUF Rebels claim responsibility for kidnapping,
START | Terrorist Organization Profile
Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization, RSADO
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28/07/2010 DW
In Kenya there is big population of Oromos in Borona region of north Kenya and some in Somalia.
The Kenyan government does not organize any proxy movement in its territory. The Oromos function clandestinely and prepare an underground insurgency. OLF ( Oromo Liberation Front) is an organization for the liberation of Oromo populated region of Ethiopia.
Eritrea does not have a direct territorial contact with Somalia, but Eritrea is sanction by the UN as principal supporter of al-Qaida based al-Shabaab. Somalis are colonially divided by the scramble of Africa among Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti. They have given a a formidable proxy war for Eritrea and Ethiopia since 1998′s war. Ogaden Somali populated region of Ethiopia has been fighting for self determination with a different organizational labeling since 1970’s. As Western Somali Liberation Front the movement provoked the 1977 war between the two countries which resulted in the demise of Somali as a state, since it never recuperated the post war era that lasted 13 years of fragility.
Mohamed Said Barre then leader of Somalia was advices not to invade Ethiopia by his allies USSR and Cuba, who later changed side and destroy the army of their making. Somalia though the only non Arabic member of the Arab League was not supported by the Oil dollar to recuperate from a devastating war with Ethiopia which end in collapsing without any international or regional assistance. Today Somalia became a center of proxy war and extremism and piracy divided into Puntland, Mogdish and Somaliland . Only in Somaliland ex British is territory we are seeing a glimpse of normalization and establishment of elected democracy since it own self declaration of independence in 1991 being the first light of stability the Horn of Africa countries. Its recent transition of power is exemplar.
Groups as a Movements or a individuals coming to Eritrea seeking a safe haven sooner or later have been transformed to proxy as we have seen it the last 10 years. If a movement resists the manipulation of the regime he will stay in limbo for over decades without a result for a near future. Or they have to move out if he is allowed and change alliance like the Islamic Court of Somalia. It is very hard to let any proxy to leave his laboratory without being completely prepared. It is like the monster living the laboratory from the table of operation of Dr. Frankenstein n. In any case a proxy has a limited mission to accomplish. His existence in any sponsoring country is measured with his successful mission to destabilize his country of origin to bring the leaders at their knees into a negotiating table in the favor of the sponsoring country not to take power in any way.
TPDM is a Eritrean proxy fabricated by the Eritrean regime for its internal consumption. If we take the organization like TTigray People’s Democratic Movement (TPDM) is supposedly working to change the regime in Ethiopia. Both Eritrean highlanders and Ethiopian Tigrians speak the same language and both are orthodox Christians. Both Tigerean speakers are in power in
Ethiopia and Eritrea. TPDM as an organization patched in Eritrea has no ground in Ethiopia. Its mission and longevity seems 
highly connected with the Eritrean border conflict with Ethiopia. Many claim the Tigerians in Ethiopia will not have a better regime than the one actually in power. Moreover, TPDM could not offer a better solution to the belegraded population of Tigre region of Ethiopia. Among the Ethiopians a new Tegerian Liberation Front is not welcomed in the public opinion. Even among the Eritrean population they are not highly apriciated due to the fear that they will be a reason to provoke the unfinished war in limbo.
Fesha Assassinated Founder & Leader of TPDM
EPPF (Ethiopian People’s Liberation Front), New Benishangul (2008), New Gambela 2008 and Southern Movement for Justice and Democracy solely are prepared and organized in the Eritrean territory. The main reason some of the organizations like EPPF lingering in Limbo is that they do not have a root at home and are not a result of homemade insurgency like that of OLF ( Oromo Liberation Front) and ONLF ( Ogaden National Liberation Front). Some of the leaders of EPPF claim they are the new offspring of the Northern movements like Kefegne and EDU (Ethiopian Democratic Union). This is just to satisfy their own aspiration and some might have been an individual member of EPRP (Ethiopian People Revolutionary Party) but not their continuation. This anachronism is to to give them a home ground. Leaders like the late Fesha the founder of TPDM who was assassinated in public in impunity claimed being the member of the Tigrean Liberation front now in power in Addis Ababa would not give TPDM legitimacy for as home insurgency.
In Ethiopia it is a common to see EPPF fighters giving their hands to the enemy camp. And some of the leaders of these organizations are not even permitted to leave the sponsors capital in fear of information linking or betrayal. Since Betrayal has been the daily phenomenon in both capitals.
Both Eritrea and Ethiopia are fighting the never ending wars in other capitals by proxy up unto Somalia which reached Kampala these days. Most of the Diasporas of EPPF have been infiltrated. Many have caught the Somalian syndrome living in Diaspora. They are fighting through the pal-talks claiming that they are the head of the movement or the international representative of this Eritrean based Proxy. Some even are nominated as a member of the CC organizations living Diaspora as a propaganda tool. The Best example will be the 17 new international member of the EPPF, who are fighting each other through the internet after a new group was given the leaders hip without consulting the others. One of founding member of Woyane movement Abraham Yayehe was once named the international Representative of TPDM. Soon the Proxy TPDM declared him no more the international spokesman of the fighters. These Proxies changes their Proxy international Representatives if they do not produce the finical quota they are asked to meet for the luxurious life of of the so called leaders in the different southern towns of Eritrea.
EPPF‘s so called international representatives are informing the enemy camps and vice versa has become a daily phenomenon. If any of the leaders come to visit the Diaspora they will never go back rather prefer to seek political asylum. The existence of such a proxy organization along the frontier of the two countries will put in danger the fragile cessez–le-feu. It might even rekindle their unfinished wars.
VIDEO
Proxy interational and local Serogates
Today the proxy organizations in both capitals risk of the innocent lives of the proxy combatants. In many cases the fighter being genuine the leaders are the agents or mercenaries of each capital. Many genuine fighters joined the movements influenced by the propaganda machine put in place. The state propaganda machine has confused the reality by making a nonexistent military communiqués. It is very easy to find a biased and fictive military communiqués posted in the proxies’ contradicting web sites each claiming great military victory. 
communiqués have never been confirmed by a third party for its veracity hen especially that of EPPF. This unfounded claim are strictly prepared for local and Diaspora consumption to raise funds. The proxy organizations leadership and its international supports are highly infiltrated. Diasporas of both countries are seen taking un necessary positions supporting one or the other capitals by making public gathering conferences manifesto if necessary demonstration in public places to support each other’s camp. This has confused the world to see the true natures of the Dictators in the horn of Africa. An armed struggle organized and structured as proxy in the image of his master are very dangerous for a civilian society not only in the country but also in the Diaspora like that of world cup blast in Kampala whcih cost over 70 innocent victims.
A true liberation movement is not the one armed, feed, organized and founded by a sponsoring country. An authentic movement emerged as an insurgency among its own people and fighting injustice with a true cause. All its action will be limited inside the territory of its struggle. And they are not taking hostage or plunder the civilian society living in the border areas. Rather mobilize its own population for insurgency against tyranny and social injustice once it has finished the non violence pacific means of changing a regime.
In the coming serious of articles we will be showing the different kinds of Armed liberation movements :- war lords, Terrorist Movements, Proxy Warriors comparing with the different parameters of NALM.
The unhealed wounds
Eritrean and Ethiopian population are not yet healed from the long drown conflict and unfinished wars. Eritrean Shabia and the Ethiopian Woyane raged recently wanton wars which lasted over two years have cost over 300,000 dead and millions displaced. And still non one sees no end to the fratricide rather the war is slowly engulfing the horn of Africa via Somalia. This makes is very hard and hostile terrain for a genuine NALM to function and gather international support for genuine cause.
Both people need another type of collaboration, surely not armed one, since the resent war wounds are not yet healed and memory is still vive. In both countries the inhabitants who lost close relatives are not favorable having “the enemy of their enemy” (proxy) in their land, which will end up rekindling a new devastating war. This could be done by the enemy coming to get these different harbored organizations in fear of eventual contingency or provoking uprising in each camp reciprocally by a preemptive strike . The same is true with the movements organized and armed by the Ethiopian government prepared to topple the regime in Eritrea? We can ask could Belligerent Ethiopia be a viable safe-haven for the new Eritrean Liberation fighters?
A lost opportunity for Home Grown NALM
Based on over a decade experience of the author in Eritrea (1998-2009) any movement who wanted to change any regime must be a homemade. Even the Eritrean themselves fought in Sahel region in Northern Eritrea during their struggle. And the Ethiopian Woyane is a home grown Ethnical insurgency . Home grown insurgency will have a full organizational autonomy. This does not mean that the true NALM does not need an external alliance. Searching for outright support from the belligerent neighbor, especially form a country once a part and a parcel of the same territory will rekindle the old wounds. Such a move will lead both countries to unfinished war. Moreover, your act will be taken as treason.
NALM is a recent dilemma in sociology of liberation needs more research to apprehend its internal dynamics. Such Alliance in Eritrea has been tried the last 12 years never gave fruit to this day. It is like running against all odds and forces that the organization is fighting plus that of the belligerent country’s stigma in the case Eritrea. In such scenario the sponsor country has lost any objectivity to have a distance and neutrality from the movement it is supporting, due to its own crisis against the country the movement is fighting to liberate. A locally grown movement could have an intentional support and will not be considered as a proxy or a terrorist rather will be known as a fighter for democracy and social injustice. Such a struggle with the support of the local population in its home ground is fruitful. A proxy will be a means to topple a government as a mercenary to create a puppet regime. The leaders of the proxy movement may not even be put as the head of the puppet regime as we have learned from history. Otherwise any Freedom Fighter in any belligerent country will be an insurgent without local roots prepared and organized by the spouse country for its end. All his action will be taken as treason against his homeland. Internationally all his moves will be considered as a terrorist act rather than a liberation act in the the strict sense of NALM according to Frantz Fanon and Amílcar Cabral , John Garang or the living giant Modella himself. Eritrean and Ethiopian leaders knew these great African Freedom Fighters, but never applied their teaching once in power.
Does the Enemy of My Enemy have a responsibility to safeguard the Unity of My Country?
The worst scenario is when a representative of an organization are not seen as enemy of the enemy but as incarnation of the enemy itself by the population of sponsoring country. This scenario was common in the last war between the two bloody enemies. Imagine the enemy of your enemy occupies your land and make you an enemy. Do you have any guaranty at the outcome of this sponsored conflict that 
the enemy of your enemy now supporting you would not be engaged to balkanized your country to weaken you. That is the fear many reflect in order to correct the last blunder they claim had been committed in the outset o f the 1991 convection between Eritrea and Ethiopia. This is what traced the road for the Ethiopian outright recognition of Eritrean independence. According to both conflicting leaders the convection has permitted Ethiopia to continue as a unified country. The same claim goes to the Eritreans who declared that they let the Woyane regime to take power Ethiopia rather than letting the different fighting groups would have declared their own independence. The failure of the convection would have put both Groups who are in power in Ethiopia and Eritrea in an expected predicament. We heard from both camps that they would have not lost their time now in preparing proxies to finish the job which would have been done in 1991:- “the dismemberment of Ethiopia.” Both claim as the savior of Ethiopia from debacle. Today in Eritrea like that of Ethiopia the proxy movements are ethnically based. Even the EPPF the so called multinational movement is considered as an Amhara Ethnic movement by the local population and that of composition. Eritrea as a country is not organized in Ethnic basis like that of Ethiopia. But the movements prepared by her are organized and well accepted in Eritrea are strictly on tribal basis. The main reason for the dysfunction of the EPPF is not respecting the founder’s principle in Eritrea, which is the Ethnic foundation for the proxies . EPPF in the beginning is a proxy made with alliance of three Ethnic groups: Benishengol, Gmabella and Amhara 2001. The first two left the movement in 2003.
Many members of different proxies have testified what they have endured in the last wars not as an enemy of the enemy but rather considered as an enemy himself . Even to this day in the national holy days Ethiopians will be rounded to spent in jail . They will be released if they pay or are the finical supporting member of one of the tribal proxy organizations. Otherwise you will be paying 5000 nakafa to be released. You be kept in captivity in any way one week after the holiday is over. If you are found after hours even coming out late hour from work you will find yourself in the same predicament. In the 1998 war Tigeran members of EPPF were encircled by the so called
Ethiopian multinational proxy leaders and were handed over to be incarcerated. Any enemy of my enemy could be thrown to jail in Eritrea to unlimited period without any body knowing where he is. If he dare to ask the reason for his imprisonment, the respond is simple a matter of national security.
If this is done to inculcate fear and break their spirit and render them more malleable it is a wrong methodology. The Proxy 
fighters spend most of their time working in forced labor in the farmlands and construction of southern Eritrea. The low symbolic salary goes directly to pockets of the Proxy leaders. They call it the mechanism of cleansing the infiltrator sent by the Ethiopian regime to spy. Those who refuse to work will calming that they came to fight not be slaved will be punished accordingly. This has backfired on the proxy organizations since most of the proxy fighters whenever they are infiltrated to the other side of the border for proxy mission, they will surrender to the enemy. Many prefer to sell their arms and go to exile or give their hands to the Sudanese or at worst they are deported 
back to Ethiopia. A week after the propaganda machine will be publishing and announcing in public media the group’s victory against the enemy in the so called interminable military communiqués.
Somalian Syndrome in the horn of Africa
The ” the enemy of your enemy” who helped you to be his proxy for the liberation your home land from your internal enemy could end up dividing and occupying certain region of your country. And even further your sponsor may help others region and movements to be organized in parallel to declare their independent what will be your fate and your guaranty ? Since the same alliance is not only working with you but he is preparing many of tribal movements organized for their region’s self determination. In other words you have accepted explicitly the dismemberment of your country.
Somalia after 1991 defection of Mohammed Said Barre was divided to: – Somaliland, Put land, the process is not yet finished etc…
Are we ready to have a new social contract like that of June 1991 or are we ready the creation of new Sates in the debris of post “ liberated Ethiopia?” , or accept the fate of Ethiopia like that Yugoslavia in the after math the liberation struggle. Even it is a far fiche example take the example of Germany in post war period? History is full of examples. Your country could risk to be eradicated from the world map Yugoslavia or risk catching Somalian Syndrome. May be we are speaking out what others wanted to say since 1991 in silence. If your do
not want that your country chose to test the bitter herb and have the fate of Somalia, then one have to consider where to put his foot. The organization working in the belligerent country will take the stigma of that country. In the Eritrean case a country facing sanction from the united nation for the same case of supporting a proxy movement in Somalia will cause the havoc in your rank and file members. Any movement asking help form Eritrea has to see the international predicament the Eritrea is facing. It is not helping that country fighting to clearly its image in the face of none reconciling international community for such a support. One has to learn from those who has gone through such experience in the past and mostly from history.
Ethiopia has gone the acute Somalian syndrome in the last 30 years. Somalia became Communist; Ethiopia followed and became the 
extremist of all the Soviet Satellites. Somalian Said Barre run away leaving Somalis Stateless and divided in the hands of worst war lords. Ethiopian Mengistu the first Ethiopian leader to run away without trying to organize his return. Ethiopia is a country divided in ethnically based regions in contrary to unified Eritrea. The Ethnically federated states are ready to declare independence strongly supported with article 39 which is enshrined in the national constitution. These ethnical regions are endowed with state flag and a parliament of their own. Since May 23, 2010 election the government of Ethnic Ethiopia has the absolute seats in federal parliament with an overwhelming majority reaching over 96% ragged votes. Any of these stats could declare independent with majority vote and would easily cease to be a part of Ethiopia. The parliament will just rubber stamp the order of the Maximo Melese Zenawie to declare their independence. We will not be surprised to see in the coming days arise of many new states in the horn of Africa in the foot stapes of southern Sudan.
Post Scriptum
Any authentic NALM as a social movement must not make his base in his belligerent country. He might be accused of treachery by his own population where he did not constitute a ground for insurgency. In the last war some of the Proxy organizations fighters fought against their mother land. Then how do the country they are fighting to liberate dare to call them a liberator rather traitors. When both countries make peace they could be used as a part of the deal could even be rendered to the enemy or at worst would be a target in their unfinished wars.
In conclusion “enemy of my enemy is not my friend, or enemy of my enemy is my friend” does not work for true and lasting liberation struggle but rather will serve as phrase in a political Machiavellianism. Otherwise you will end up being like the Woyane and Shabia in power in Ethiopia and Eritrea fighting for ever after victory. And even to this day they are fabricating proxies for fulfilling their final objectives the demise of Ethiopia as we know it following the Somalian foot step. This syndrome has reached the city of Kampala and engulfing slowly the rest of the member states of African Unity as the direct result of the Somalian proxy wars of the horn of Africa between Ethiopia &Ethiopia. The Somalian conflict will be a memory if both countries stop fabricating proxies and make a lasting peace under the auspices of African Unity & the United nations.
To draw an element of conclusion, the alliance Eritrea has made with different forces of Somalia has cost her image and leading to UN sanction. Eritrea which was affectively a part and parcel of Abyssinian culture and organic part of the same people must weight her engagement when it makes alliance with one or more of the different parties of Ethiopia. She must keep objectiveness and distance to be respected as a viable sisterly nation. Her leaders muse differentiate their relation that of the people to people and that of state to state. The legacy of the Scramble for African had put division between the two states but as a people they are one and the same. And it is not a good choice to make her alliance with the traditional enemies of Ethiopia, rather make peace and solidarity with Ethiopia. As we know Eritrea was intermittently the part of Abyssinian later Ethiopian sphere. Thus she has no any legal or political objectivity to support any disruptive proxies against Ethiopia. At any cost she must let the Ethiopians find their own internal solution. The same is true with Ethiopia supporting proxies against Eritrea rather than wining positively the hearts and minds of the Eritrean people. Eritrea must recognize Ethiopian refugee in her land and start accepting them according UNHCR, since they are not not yet considered as one. Any Ethiopian in Eritrea must not be used as a proxy for war rather must be accepted as a brother and sister at any cost and be respected according to international convention.
In conclusion belligerent umbilical alliance is not a legitimate choice when it comes to NALM in order to win victory against tyranny and social injustice.
Watch the 2and video coming soon… showing the new vision and the true choice …
Prof. Muse Tegegne
Ethiopia National Conference for Democratic Change in Eritrea …
By Tesfa-Alem Tekle Aug 1, 2010 (ADDIS ABABA) – Ten Eritrean opposition political organizations are holding a week- long conference in the (…)
www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35831
Eritrea: “Isaak prepared for an Ethiopian invasion”
